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Fill a report high: Bad loan risk is about to show Chinese estate
From;    Author:Stand originally

Think in the market of domestic estate market fatigued and weak in was not being pounded badly endowment the bank is bad when loan, fill report of a newest research high to point out, worst when bad loan risk will be in the estate that still does not have course of study of incoming —— Bank of China the four seasons was spent 2008 and clue was shown at the beginning of first half of the year 2009.

Gao Cheng thinks, h in endowment of the bank gain was forecasted 2009 drop about 4 % ~8% ; The pure A with lesser dimensions the negative effect that bank profit gets may be more serious (- 8%~-13% ) . And real-estate loan takes taller a surname hair, an ancient name for China and the bank that start line of business may get estate market more easily exasperate concussion.

   The fourth quarter will begin the venture show

Gao Cheng thinks, domestic real-estate industry clinchs a deal the abidance of the quantity glides, of confidence of the person that buy a house exhausted of the addition of weak, inventory and wool interest rate glide will bring about business of a few development to encounter cash sheds difficult position, and bad loan risk will be in the estate of course of study of Bank of China the four seasons was spent 2008 and clue was shown at the beginning of first half of the year 2009.

Actually, estate market appeared last year in October since adjusting, development merchant cash reserve in a bank flows inadequacy to already was exposed gradually, but from appear on the market the newspaper in the bank looks, this did not produce clear impact to its credit quality. Does Gao Cheng's basis where?

Gao Cheng thinks, although real-estate industry growth puts delay, but the wool interest rate with development higher still business and net profit margin (prep above 30% ) provided cushion for the creditor such as the bank. In the meantime, in view of residential project higher gross profit is led, development business from capital was attracted over there domestic and international private investor.

These bring about “ to develop the capital surplus of business to still maintain higher level first half of the year this year, ” Gao Cheng points out, as clinch a deal quantity and credit growth are low fan, developed business outspreadly two years to spread occurrence ready money insecurity in a large-scale in the past.

According to statistic, this year 1~7 month, home is main 14 cities grew 24% compared to the same period in the gross area that builds a project, prep above last year the amplitude of 23% ; Area of project of new go into operation of the corresponding period also grows 15% compared to the same period. And this kind goes against situation dilate, will be in the 4th quarter makes cash flows one disaster after another this year.

Fill judgement high, the sales revenue that develops business second half of the year / management cash flows to drop compared to the same period about 40% . Because develop business to connect regular meeting to pay a part the money of finishing project to construction company in the end of the year, because this goes 3 years,the development cost of 1/3 will happen in the 4th quarter.
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